October 17, 2026 · 10 min read
How to tell if your investment thesis is broken (or if you just had a bad quarter)
Every guide on when to sell says to sell when the thesis is broken, then stops. This one gives the test: drivers versus outcomes, the three ways a thesis actually fails, what counts as evidence, and a live NVDA thesis with seven claims in four different states.
Read the essayAugust 17, 2026 · 10 min read
What is an investment thesis (and how to actually write one)
Most investors can tell you what they bought. Fewer can say what would prove them wrong. This essay is about the difference: the three parts of a real thesis, a template for writing yours tonight, and a worked NVDA example you can check against the next earnings print.
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